De lectura recomentadada. Hablan los gurus de Morgan Stanley
Publicado: 03 Abr 2005 12:02
escritos por sus economistas mas prestigiosos
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/di ... igest.html
Pesimismo expirando hasta por los dientes
destacar los dos últimos párrafos :
"A global slowdown was inevitable in 2005 -- in my view, it was just a question of degree. The 4.8% spurt of world GDP growth in 2004 -- equaling the sharpest increase in 20 years -- was an outgrowth of the extraordinary stimulus that was put in place in 2003 as the world veered dangerously toward deflation. That stimulus obviously achieved considerable traction in 2004, but in doing so undoubtedly borrowed from gains in the future. That future is now. Unfortunately, the payback could well be exacerbated by two new global headwinds -- sharply elevated energy prices and the coming normalization of real interest rates.
An unbalanced global economy is a vulnerable global economy. As the world’s imbalances have continued to mount -- underscored by the sharp recent widening of the US current-account deficit -- those perils have only grown larger. A serious pitfall was averted in 2003 when the authorities opted for a major reflationary policy gambit. But the impacts of those efforts have now worn off. That leaves an unbalanced world with little choice other than to face up to the imperatives of global rebalancing. A slower US growth dynamic is an integral part of that rebalancing. It is up to the rest of the world as to whether there are any compensating offsets. For the time being, that does not appear to be the case. And so an unbalanced global economy is now beginning to sputter."
y muy interesantes los comentarios posteriores para ser leidos también.
saludos.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/di ... igest.html
Pesimismo expirando hasta por los dientes
destacar los dos últimos párrafos :
"A global slowdown was inevitable in 2005 -- in my view, it was just a question of degree. The 4.8% spurt of world GDP growth in 2004 -- equaling the sharpest increase in 20 years -- was an outgrowth of the extraordinary stimulus that was put in place in 2003 as the world veered dangerously toward deflation. That stimulus obviously achieved considerable traction in 2004, but in doing so undoubtedly borrowed from gains in the future. That future is now. Unfortunately, the payback could well be exacerbated by two new global headwinds -- sharply elevated energy prices and the coming normalization of real interest rates.
An unbalanced global economy is a vulnerable global economy. As the world’s imbalances have continued to mount -- underscored by the sharp recent widening of the US current-account deficit -- those perils have only grown larger. A serious pitfall was averted in 2003 when the authorities opted for a major reflationary policy gambit. But the impacts of those efforts have now worn off. That leaves an unbalanced world with little choice other than to face up to the imperatives of global rebalancing. A slower US growth dynamic is an integral part of that rebalancing. It is up to the rest of the world as to whether there are any compensating offsets. For the time being, that does not appear to be the case. And so an unbalanced global economy is now beginning to sputter."
y muy interesantes los comentarios posteriores para ser leidos también.
saludos.
