El metodo de ruptura de cajas de Nicolas Darvas
Publicado: 23 Jun 2005 13:21
Este buen hombre escribio un libro llamado: "How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market" traducido al castellano. Yo no lo he leído, ya se que suena a "tipico vendedor del Santo Grial" pero el método, por lo que entiendo más o menos, parece interesante.
Aquí van las reglas de las famosas "cajitas" de Darvas:
Nicolas Darvas - The Method
Without the following elements, I could find no possibility of applying my approach:
1) All-time high
2) High and low for the past 2-3 years
3)Weekly price range and volume for at least the last 4-6 months
My analysis (which takes 15 minutes) is:
1) The general market trend
2) 6-8 stocks of each of the 3-4 industries that I am interested in, to see how these industries behave in relation to the general trend of the market
3) The price changes of those stocks that I hold or am interested in
4) A general view of the stock page to see an unusual price and volume change for possible new candidates
Stop Loss
- I placed my stop-losses one fraction below the ceiling through which the stock broke through. I gave my broker instructions to place this stop-loss immediately after the purchase of the stock
- When a stock broke through into a new upper box, I left the stop-loss order at its previous level until the stock had established the upper and the lower level of its new box. When the lower level of the new box was firmly established, I raised the previous stop-loss order to a fraction under the lower limit of the new box (new bottom)
- It is natural to consider the close stop-loss order as too dangerous and useless, but stops are never placed within a box. They are always placed either:
1. immediately following a massive breakthrough on the up side (in which case the stop-loss is placed just below the breakthrough point) or
2. a fraction below the bottom of a box, where it is executed when the stock breaks through this bottom on the down side
- I have used a crude stop loss of 10% to let the strongest of 4 stocks survive
Boxes
Rule: (Take the case of a stock breaking out of a previous box and starting to advance) The upper limit of its new box will be the highest price that will be reached during this advance and which will not be touched or penetrated during 3 consecutive days. The lower limit of the new box cannot be established until the upper limit is firmly set. The method of establishing it is the exact reverse of how you establish the upper limit
- The 3 consecutive days rule only applies to establish the lower and upper limit of the boxes
- I have never even been sure that there would be a new box. However, if a stock did break out on the outside, I waited until a new box was established, and it is only then that I could see what the bottom of the new box would be—this no-one can foretell
- Profit-taking in a firmly rising stock usually drops the price to the lower half of its new box and not back into its old lower one. If I am stopped out like this I could buy back again on a new all-time high
Orders
- A stock should be purchased the moment it pushes (even a fraction) through the top of its box—the day of the breakthrough
- My on-stop buy-orders were placed previous to breakthroughs, and they had been a fraction above their new highs. The orders were automatically executed and, after execution, the stop-loss orders were entered a fraction below the old highs
- Where the historic high is above a box high, I place my on-stop purchase order 1/8 above the historic high and my stop-loss order 1/8 below its historic high
No se si hay ligeras modificaciones respecto al metodo original de Darvas, ya que lo he sacado de aquí:
http://www.darvasboxes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4
http://www.darvasboxes.com/report.html
Un saludo.
Aquí van las reglas de las famosas "cajitas" de Darvas:
Nicolas Darvas - The Method
Without the following elements, I could find no possibility of applying my approach:
1) All-time high
2) High and low for the past 2-3 years
3)Weekly price range and volume for at least the last 4-6 months
My analysis (which takes 15 minutes) is:
1) The general market trend
2) 6-8 stocks of each of the 3-4 industries that I am interested in, to see how these industries behave in relation to the general trend of the market
3) The price changes of those stocks that I hold or am interested in
4) A general view of the stock page to see an unusual price and volume change for possible new candidates
Stop Loss
- I placed my stop-losses one fraction below the ceiling through which the stock broke through. I gave my broker instructions to place this stop-loss immediately after the purchase of the stock
- When a stock broke through into a new upper box, I left the stop-loss order at its previous level until the stock had established the upper and the lower level of its new box. When the lower level of the new box was firmly established, I raised the previous stop-loss order to a fraction under the lower limit of the new box (new bottom)
- It is natural to consider the close stop-loss order as too dangerous and useless, but stops are never placed within a box. They are always placed either:
1. immediately following a massive breakthrough on the up side (in which case the stop-loss is placed just below the breakthrough point) or
2. a fraction below the bottom of a box, where it is executed when the stock breaks through this bottom on the down side
- I have used a crude stop loss of 10% to let the strongest of 4 stocks survive
Boxes
Rule: (Take the case of a stock breaking out of a previous box and starting to advance) The upper limit of its new box will be the highest price that will be reached during this advance and which will not be touched or penetrated during 3 consecutive days. The lower limit of the new box cannot be established until the upper limit is firmly set. The method of establishing it is the exact reverse of how you establish the upper limit
- The 3 consecutive days rule only applies to establish the lower and upper limit of the boxes
- I have never even been sure that there would be a new box. However, if a stock did break out on the outside, I waited until a new box was established, and it is only then that I could see what the bottom of the new box would be—this no-one can foretell
- Profit-taking in a firmly rising stock usually drops the price to the lower half of its new box and not back into its old lower one. If I am stopped out like this I could buy back again on a new all-time high
Orders
- A stock should be purchased the moment it pushes (even a fraction) through the top of its box—the day of the breakthrough
- My on-stop buy-orders were placed previous to breakthroughs, and they had been a fraction above their new highs. The orders were automatically executed and, after execution, the stop-loss orders were entered a fraction below the old highs
- Where the historic high is above a box high, I place my on-stop purchase order 1/8 above the historic high and my stop-loss order 1/8 below its historic high
No se si hay ligeras modificaciones respecto al metodo original de Darvas, ya que lo he sacado de aquí:
http://www.darvasboxes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4
http://www.darvasboxes.com/report.html
Un saludo.